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Why Being Early Can Look Exactly Like Being Wrong

One of the hardest things about ideas is that being early can look exactly like being wrong.

The customers do not care. The economics do not work. The technology is clumsy. Distribution is impossible.

You conclude the idea failed.

Sometimes it did.

Sometimes the environment was not ready.

I think the useful distinction is between a concept whose underlying logic is weak and one whose enabling conditions have not arrived.

What would need to change for this idea to become compelling?

Maybe computing power has to become cheaper. Maybe regulation has to change. Maybe consumers need to adopt a behaviour first. Maybe infrastructure has to exist. Maybe a complementary technology has to mature.

If you can identify those conditions, an early idea becomes something you can watch rather than something you have to permanently discard.

This is why seeing what others miss matters to me. An idea can sit quietly for years and become relevant again when one external variable changes.

Timing is part of the opportunity.

Remember, you don't have to be first, but you should be part of the first 10% to catch the wave.

Continue exploring

This article is part of my Creativity & Innovation authority series. Continue with Creativity & Innovation hub, AI Is Collapsing the Cost of Testing Ideas, Where Good Ideas Come From: Problems, Friction, Change & Connection and Constraints Can Make You More Creative.

Chad McMillan

Chad McMillan is a creative entrepreneur and strategic advisor with over 20 years of experience in and around the capital markets, focused on finding hidden potential in companies, ideas, markets and people, and advancing what they can become.