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Future Thinking: Look for What Is Becoming Possible, Not Just What Exists Today

A man looks toward the horizon at sunset, illustrating future thinking and seeing possibilities before they become mainstream.

I am interested in the future, but I am not particularly interested in pretending I can predict it precisely.

The useful part of future thinking is not saying what the world will look like in 2035.

It is noticing what is changing now and asking what those changes make possible.

I watch technologies, economics, regulation, demographics, culture and behaviour. Then I look for intersections.

What becomes dramatically cheaper? What becomes abundant? What becomes scarce? What old constraint disappears? What new constraint appears?

A change in one variable can create a chain reaction.

AI reduces the cost of software creation. That changes who can build software, how quickly ideas can be tested and potentially how many extremely narrow applications become economically viable.

Electrification increases demand for certain materials. That changes the value of recovery, recycling, processing and supply-chain technologies.

Remote work changes where people can live. That affects cities, offices, travel, community and services.

I am less interested in any one prediction than in the possibility tree that forms around the change.

Look for second-order effects

The obvious opportunity is often the first-order effect.

The more interesting opportunities can appear one or two steps later.

If electric vehicles grow, selling EVs is obvious. But what happens to charging, grid demand, batteries, end-of-life materials, repair, insurance, parking and the supply of critical minerals?

Future thinking gets more useful when you keep asking, and then what?

This is closely related to my broader Creativity & Innovation framework. Notice the change, connect it to other systems, imagine what becomes possible and then test whether the opportunity is real.

Continue exploring

This article is part of my Creativity & Innovation authority series. Continue with Creativity & Innovation hub, How I Decide Whether an Idea Is Worth Pursuing, Cross-Pollination: Why I Like Working Across Business, Markets, Technology & Creativity and Idea Capture: Why I Treat My Notes Like an Inventory of Possibility.

Chad McMillan

Chad McMillan is a creative entrepreneur and strategic advisor with over 20 years of experience in and around the capital markets, focused on finding hidden potential in companies, ideas, markets and people, and advancing what they can become.