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Small Experiments Beat Big Assumptions

A man examines plants in a garden, illustrating the value of testing ideas through small experiments instead of relying on assumptions.

The beginning of an idea is mostly assumptions.

We think people have the problem. We think they will care about our solution. We think they will pay. We think we can reach them. We think the economics will work.

The dangerous thing is building a large organization on top of those assumptions before testing them.

I prefer small experiments.

What is the most important thing we do not know?

Then: what is the smallest credible test that could teach us something about it?

If the uncertainty is demand, talk to customers or sell before building everything.

If it is technical feasibility, build the narrowest prototype that proves the difficult part.

If it is distribution, test the channel.

If it is pricing, ask for money rather than compliments.

A good experiment does not need to prove the whole venture. It needs to reduce an important uncertainty.

Then the next experiment can be larger because you are building on evidence rather than hope.

This connects directly into Venture Building. I think of the early journey as a sequence of earned commitments: conversation → prototype → pilot → customer → revenue → repeatability.

Each step should make the next investment of time or capital more intelligent.

Continue exploring

This article is part of my Creativity & Innovation authority series. Continue with Creativity & Innovation hub, Seeing What Others Miss: How I Think About Ideas, Creativity & Innovation, The Right Vehicle for an Idea: Build It, Partner It, License It, Sell It or Let It Wait and Where Good Ideas Come From: Problems, Friction, Change & Connection.

Chad McMillan

Chad McMillan is a creative entrepreneur and strategic advisor with over 20 years of experience in and around the capital markets, focused on finding hidden potential in companies, ideas, markets and people, and advancing what they can become.